一 | Exactly 75 years ago Jawaharlal Nehru, one of the principal leaders of India’s independence movement in the 1930s and 1940s, was sworn in as prime minister of the Dominion of India and raised the national flag at the Red Fort in Delhi. Having brought an end to the colonial rule of the British Empire, the Indian leadership embraced the concept of "non-alignment" and "neutrality" and diversified its ties, seeking new partnerships. At the time, the Soviet Union emerged as a natural ally for the independent Indian state.,Nehru was attracted to Marxism and promoted the idea of evolutionary and inclusive socialism. Back in 1927, the would-be Indian prime minister visited the USSR for the first time together with his wife Kamala, younger sister Krishna, and his father Motilal Nehru, a leader of the Indian National Congress.,The trip was connected with the 10th Anniversary of the Great October Socialist Revolution, which was seen by Nehru and other Indian nationalists in "a very positive light," according to Dr. Anuradha Chenoy, professor of the Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University.,The Soviet press extensively covered the Nehrus' visit to Moscow, hailing Motilal and Jawaharlal as prominent leaders of India’s freedom movement. Jawaharlal Nehru was received in the Kremlin by Mikhail Kalinin, chairman of the Central Executive Committee of the USSR. Having wrapped up his journey, the Indian politician wrote a booklet titled "Soviet Russia, some random sketches and impressions" (1928).,"Jawaharlal Nehru was influenced by Marxist and socialist thought to some extent, as he saw the need for state intervention for alleviating poverty, developing infrastructure and for development," says Dr. Chenoy. "He thus advocated and made policies to develop state- or public sector industries and also created a Planning Commission. Independent India's Second Plan was especially modeled around the Soviet planning system.",CC BY 2.0 / Public.Resource.Org / Photo 656 Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru at the mike. 20.7.47 Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru at the mike. 20.7.47 CC BY 2.0 / Public.Resource.Org / Photo 656,USSR Helped India Lay the Groundwork for Industrialization,On January 26, 1950, India became a republic within the Commonwealth of Nations with Jawaharlal Nehru serving as the Republic of India's prime minister until May 27, 1964. During this period, the USSR and India started to deepen their ties, according to Dr. Chenoy.,"Soviet support was crucial for an underdeveloped and newly liberated country like India," the academic explains. "Since India wanted to develop as a 'mixed economy,' that is to have both a state and private sector, Western countries refused them any aid and assistance that India needed. So India turned to the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union assisted India in the creation of new steel plants and several infrastructure industries. They assisted in developing Indian science and technology institutions which laid the base for Indian development in later years.",Dr. Chenoy elaborates that in the 1950s, the USSR helped India lay the groundwork for the country's early industrialization, with the Asian giant then starting to receive Russian defense equipment and military hardware.,CC0 / / Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi (1917-1984) at the National Press Club, Washington, D.C. 1n 1966 Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi (1917-1984) at the National Press Club, Washington, D.C. 1n 1966CC0 / /,Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation,The Indian war with Pakistan in 1971 became a pivotal moment for Indo-Soviet relations, according to the Indian academic. The conflict erupted over the Bangladesh liberation movement in East Pakistan, which was accompanied by killings of the Bengalis – both Muslims and Hindus – by West Pakistani forces led by General Agha Muhammad Yahya Khan in March 1971.,As a result of the violence and instability caused by the onslaught in East Pakistan, an estimated 10 million Bengalis fled to India by May 1971, prompting Delhi to intervene. Judging from documents released in December 2002 by the National Security Archive (NSA), a US non-profit archival institution, US President Richard Nixon and National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger did nothing to curtail the West Pakistani repressions against Bengalis and backed General Yahya.,After India stepped in to shield the Bengalis, "not only did the United States publicly pronounce India as the aggressor in the war, but the US sent the nuclear aircraft carrier, USS Enterprise, to the Bay of Bengal, and authorized the transfer of US military supplies to Pakistan, despite the apparent illegality of doing so," according to the non-profit.,Moscow's help came in handy at the time: in August 1971, India and the USSR concluded the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation that specified mutual strategic cooperation between the countries. The treaty sent a powerful signal to the US and its allies. Eventually, the conflict ended on December 16, 1971 with the military forces of West Pakistan that were in Bangladesh surrendering.,"The Indian war with Pakistan on the issue of the liberation of Bangladesh in 1971 was a very special moment of Soviet support since the US wanted to help its ally Pakistan," says Dr. Chenoy. "After this, the Treaty of Friendship signed between India and the USSR was very holistic and provided India with much technological and defense support. Since then the friendship has increased.",© Photo : Indian PM OfficeModi Putin MeetModi Putin Meet© Photo : Indian PM Office,India's Strategic Autonomy,The historic Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation was renewed for another 20 years on August 8, 1991. After the collapse of the USSR, Moscow and New Delhi replaced the accords with the 20-year Treaty of Indo-Russian Friendship and Cooperation in January 1993.,Although the dissolution of the USSR resulted in a temporary chill in Russo-Indian economic and trade relations, they were soon reshuffled and are continuing to develop regardless of sanctions imposed by the West, according to Dr. Chenoy.,Since the declaration of independence back in 1947, India has managed to achieve significant strategic autonomy. The country has been maintaining ties with various global powers in accordance with its own strategic plans.,Thus, in June 2022, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar made it clear at the GlobeSec 2022 Bratislava Forum that India would not copycat the West's anti-Russia policies in the wake of Moscow's special operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine. He stressed that “the world cannot be that Euro-centric as it used to be in the past,” adding that India, which is one-fifth of the world’s population and the fifth-largest economy will be guided by its national interests in the first place.。 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 张贝贝 编辑 | 丁萍 头图 | 视觉中国 据新华社1月26日援引外媒报道，印度西孟加拉邦暴发尼帕病毒疫情，当前确诊5例（1人病情危重，其中确诊人员含医护），近100人被要求居家隔离。 受此消息影响，当天A股市场疫苗、诊断检测等板块异动显著，多只个股出现涨停。 可看出市场对此次疫情关注度较高。 然而，上涨行情未能持续。 随着国家疾控局回应，我国尚未发现尼帕病毒病例，且此次疫情主要发生在西孟加拉邦，与我国没有领土接壤。经综合研判此次疫情对我国影响较小，相关企业股价大幅回调。 问题来了，狂热退潮之后，留下的到底是机会还是风险？ 在回答这个问题之前，我们先来了解下尼帕病毒究竟是什么？它会不会再次成为药企估值波动的核心催化剂？ 病死率高，无特效药 首先要明确的是，尼帕病毒不是新病毒。 该病毒最初于1998年在马来西亚的养猪场中被发现，后蔓延至临近的新加坡，以及此后尼帕病毒疫情在孟加拉国、印度等国家时有报告。 要注意的是，该病毒主要由果蝠携带。但在果蝠体内，尼帕病毒却并不引发明显症状，所以被其污染的食物，没有明显特征，从而完成“动物-人”、“人-人”跨物种传播。 如研究发现，马来西亚的案例中，病毒可能是携带病毒的果蝠排泄物污染了猪饲料，猪被感染后，传播到接触它的人，最终通过“人-人”传播波及大量人群。（人与人之间，主要通过飞沫、直接接触患者的呼吸道分泌物或排泄物传播） 但因为感染者的症状与流感类似，包括发烧、头疼、咳嗽、嗜睡等，且潜伏期较长，一般为4天至14天，最长可达45天。所以，最开始可能会被当做流感治疗。
二 | 但是代价可能非常严重，感染者严重后可能会出现致命的脑炎和急性呼吸窘迫综合征，致死率较高，在40%以上。 这或许是尼帕病毒每次感染病例数不多，但世界卫生组织（WHO）仍将该病毒列为高优先级流行病威胁病原体的重要原因。 且因为该病毒尚无疫苗或特效治疗药物，也存在境外输入的风险，公众关注度还是比较高，这也是开头提到资本市场多股上涨的重要原因。 不过，不用过度恐慌，国家层面已经为我们做了第一层防护。 2024年12月30日，国家疾控局海关总署关于公布监测传染病目录的公告发布，把尼帕病毒病纳入了《监测传染病目录》，并将尼帕病毒防控的关口前移到口岸开展监测，可早发现、早阻断疫情跨境传播。 国内也有多家企业拥有尼帕病毒检测产品，助力早检测、早隔离，避免更大的传播。
三 | 如凯普生物、之江生物通过微信公众号发布消息称，已研制出尼帕病毒核酸检测试剂盒；达安基因官网披露，已研制出“尼帕病毒核酸检测试剂盒（荧光PCR法）”，检测灵敏度可达200 copies/mL，减小漏检风险等。 还有圣湘生物在互动平台表示，公司基于荧光PCR技术平台，已开发出相应的检测解决方案，拥有获得CE认证的尼帕病毒核酸检测试剂盒以及国内的科研版试剂盒。目前其已对接当地市场渠道，与当地卫生主管部门、疾控中心等医疗机构保持联系，快速响应新发突发公共卫生事件。 万孚生物有消息称其快速检测产品被印度列为应急储备物资。以及金域医学官微披露，其联合金圻睿研发的MetaVirus病毒全基因组探针捕获NGS检测服务，可实现对尼帕病毒及多种病原体的精准检测与深度分析，有助于精准防控。 ...... 但需注意的是，我们普通人也需要做好自我防护，这是第二层保护。
四 | 如出门戴口罩，避免飞沫传播；同时，保持个人卫生，勤洗手；吃水果前进行清洗、剥皮，以及坏果不吃；避免接触野生动物或生病的猪等动物。 上述情况下，市场对尼帕病毒疫情担忧情绪褪去。再加上，此次印度疫情并未能让国内企业业务获得更多新的需求增量，业绩提振的积极预期没有了，这或许是资本市场大幅回调的重要原因。 接下来看下涉及标的的基本面情况。 “藏不住”的业绩压力 直接上结论，疫苗、检测行业“业绩承压的残酷现实”仍在。 为何用了“仍在”？ 先来看有尼帕病毒检测产品落地的检测行业。 新冠疫情期间，医疗检测行业可以说是资本市场“最靓的仔”。但大规模核酸检测已是历史，随着2023年新冠疫情逐渐可控，检测需求锐减，拥有新冠病毒核酸检测产品的达安基因、圣湘生物、之江生物、凯普生物等业绩普遍大幅回调，甚至出现亏损。
五 | 结合2025年业绩预告，可以看到当下这些企业的业绩压力仍在。
六 | 截至目前，有7家医疗检测企业披露2025年业绩预告，有6家亏损。其中亏损企业中含上述提到拥有尼帕病毒检测产品的凯普生物、之江生物、金域医学和万孚生物。 （资料来源：Choice数据） 分析原因：主要是受经济周期、行业竞争加剧带来营收下滑；还有集采政策陆续执行，导致产品价格下降；以及自2025年1月1日起，销售自产检测试剂的增值税率由3%调整至13%，对营收和利润带来不利影响；还有下游回款困难、部分业务应收账款账龄延长引发减值损失等，对利润进一步拖累。
七 | 再加上，此次印度疫情暴发的消息传来后，虽然凯普生物、之江生物、金域医学、万孚生物等企业公告有检测产品，但并未看到相关订单承接的报道消息，这意味着此次疫情对国内检测企业的业绩增量没能有大的拉动，2026年这些企业的业绩压力大概率仍比较大。 至于疫苗板块，近几年行业整体竞争激烈。
八 | 目前披露2025年业绩预告的企业共5家，3家亏损。而另外2家虽然盈利，但相较去年同期均是同比下滑，可见业绩压力之大。接下来逐一看下。 智飞生物：曾有”疫苗一哥“之称的智飞生物，在核心代理产品HPV疫苗供需恶化，陷入价格战；以及被市场看做公司“第二增长曲线”的代理产品疱疹疫苗，销售不及预期的情况下，业绩受到扰动较大；再加上存货较多，库存消化困难，计提大额存货减值准备的情况下，2025年首次年度亏损，预亏超百亿。 与医疗检测行业一样，之前疫苗板块部分企业如康希诺、智飞生物等受益新冠疫苗销售，业绩较好。但随着新冠疫情可控，业绩回调。 沃森生物：核心产品是HPV疫苗、13价和23价肺炎疫苗、流脑疫苗等。
九 | HPV疫苗行业情况不再赘述，但是肺炎疫苗、流脑疫苗的行业竞争情况也不容乐观。
十 | 1）肺炎疫苗：目前国内有辉瑞、沃森、康泰生物、康希诺的四款13价肺炎疫苗，还有包括智飞生物、沃森生物在内的多款23价肺炎疫苗，行业竞争激烈，已经有价格竞争。 据中信建投研报数据，国内的几款13价肺炎疫苗价格定价随着上市时间先后依次走低（康希诺价格还未看到）。 上述原因下，以上述产品为主要产品的沃森、智飞等企业业绩进一步受到扰动。 2）流脑疫苗：用于预防脑膜炎球菌引起的感染性疾病。但是国内目前已有十几款上市的产品，还有多家企业产品处于临床3期阶段，竞争也比较激烈，销售压力也比较大。 3）康希诺：公司超9成收入来源于流脑疫苗，由上述该产品行业竞争压力较大，这或许是其销售费用不断增长的原因。2021-2024年销售费用金额分别是1.06亿元、2.67亿元、3.53亿元和3.69亿元，2025年前三季度销售费用2.77亿元，同比增长41%。 若再结合公司2025年新获批13价肺炎疫苗的注册证书，为了推广新产品，销售费用可能还会继续增加，从此维度看，其未来业绩压力仍会较大。 4）康华生物：公司超9成收入来源于狂犬疫苗。国内已经获批的狂犬疫苗产品有十几款，竞争激烈。2022-2024年康华生物的狂犬疫苗批签发量分别为809.58万支、693.89万支和389.76万支，逐年下滑，业绩承压较大。
十一 | 5）百克生物：核心产品为带状疱疹疫苗。国内疱疹疫苗虽然上市的产品GSK（由智飞生物代理）和百克生物的两款，但是该疫苗针对的是中老年群体，单价较高，高达上千元，渗透率较低。为了推广和快速抢占市场，该疫苗目前已开始价格战。 百克生物更是为了提振销量，单只价格降幅近70%。2025年12月江西省疾控中心发布公示，百克生物递交调价函件，对带状疱疹疫苗的价格进行调整，由原价1375元/支，降至464元/支。而GSK的产品在2025年也推出“打一赠一”的促销活动。 上述背景下，未来百克生物的业绩承压还是比较大。 小结 总结看，本次印度尼帕病毒疫情虽未波及我国，但其高致死率、长潜伏期及缺乏特效药的特点，引发了资本市场对相关板块的强烈关注。 然而市场反应需理性看待，对公众而言，国家已加强口岸监测，个人做好基础防护即可，无需过度恐慌。
十二 | 投资者需警惕部分企业借疫情“搭便车”驱动的股价上涨，持续盈利兑现才是资本市场走强的关键所在。从此维度看，尼帕病毒热点，救不了医疗检测、疫苗行业业绩的“场”，投资需谨慎。 免责声明：本文内容仅供参照，文内信息或所表达的意见不构成任何投资建议，请读者谨慎作出投资决策。
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